Kaercher says that risks to the filing season could include delayed tax refunds, inability to answer as many phone calls or help lines, and “there’s a question of whether they retained the right people in house” to quickly solve technical issues should they arise during tax season.

Tax refunds in 2025 are currently running 32% lower than they were a year ago. That gap is expected to close in the coming weeks, though, as returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit begin to be processed.

Early results from the IRS indicate that 7.7% fewer tax returns were filed in the first two weeks of the 2025 season. Why are some delaying filing?