Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of ...

You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...

The results of the last six presidential elections in Pennsylvania compared with the national popular vote. Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538 Still, Biden’s edge was slim: He carried ...

The polls in Pennsylvania continue to show a tight race with nearly a week until Election Day. According to the ...

ToplineThe swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with ...

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump need Pennsylvania on Election Day 2024 for a possible presidential election win. Here's what ...

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by just one point—a near-tie—in Pennsylvania in a new poll ...

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt. Want to know who will win the 2024 presidential election? Flip a coin. The race is very likely to come down to seven key swing ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.