Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts estimate the probability of either candidate winning, and are separate from polls, which estimate how much of the vote each candidate will get—but many ...
Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 - Election Day - millions more will join them. Their votes this year will matter ...
To create them, 538 collects the data from individual polls carried out both nationally and in battleground states by lots of polling companies. As part of its quality control, 538 only includes ...
That's why we do things like publish ratings of pollster accuracy and transparency and make complex election forecasting ...
Despite pulling into the lead in two recent polls, Kari Lake still trails Ruben Gallego in polling averages and betting odds.
ToplineThe swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with ...
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