FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Nov 5, 2024 · Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Nate Silver Shares 2024 Election Prediction - Newsweek
Nov 5, 2024 · It comes after Silver's Monday forecast showed that Trump was the favorite to win the election, with a 50.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris's 49.2 percent.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
Nov 5, 2024 · See the latest polls and predictions for the 2024 presidential election between Harris and Trump. Harris leads by 3 percentage points nationally and has a 54% chance of winning the Electoral...
How Accurate Was Nate Silver? - Newsweek
6 days ago · That included Nate Silver, whose projection gave Harris a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50-percent chance of victory compared to Trump's 49.6 percent.
Harris takes razor-thin lead in final Nate Silver forecast
Nov 5, 2024 · According to the forecast, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations run, which Silver noted is twice as many simulations as he typically runs.
Nate Silver poll projects Harris, Trump split popular, electoral vote
Sep 17, 2024 · Nate Silver's Electoral College forecast shows Trump with a 56.2% chance of winning, despite Harris leading him by almost three points nationally. The polls and betting markets also favor...
Nate Silver Says There's 'Real Movement' Toward Trump in
Oct 18, 2024 · According to the Silver Bulletin model, Trump has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris' 49.5 percent, despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the ...
Harris is in much better shape than Biden. But she has ... - Nate Silver
Jul 30, 2024 · The Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast model relaunched today, and there’s some good news for Democrats: Kamala Harris is in a considerably better position than Joe Biden, who had only a 27 percent chance of winning when he exited the race — and that was probably generous given Biden’s increasingly evident inability to run a ...
The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance
Sep 6, 2024 · The good news for Harris is that we have the Electoral College bias as being slightly less than in the past two elections. Weighted by each state’s tipping-point probability, it was R +3.7 in 2016 and R +3.5 in 2020.
Nate Silver talks risk, uncertainty, gambling and 2024 election
Oct 28, 2024 · Silver praised Trump’s strategy of targeting microniche groups to raise his ceiling to the 49 percent of the vote that would likely mean winning the Electoral College. He acknowledged that the uncertainty of the outcome at this …